An important test of our fragility/robustness score was to go back to the end of 2007, in order to see how our approach would have worked out over the tumultuous year 2008.

» Quick methodology notes:

 

» Key 2008 performance metrics for the baskets, the S&P500 and the long-short allocation:

Price Return Realized Volatility Relative Volatility / Benchmark1 Sharpe Ratio2 Maximum Drawdown3 Calmar Ratio Correlation Beta R-squared4 Annualized Alpha5 Treynor Ratio Up Capture Down Capture Active Return6 Tracking Error6 Information Ratio6
LONG BASKET -33.9% 49.8% 1.21 -0.68 -49.0% 0.69 0.96 1.17 92% 17.5% -0.29 120.7% 113.3% 18.5% 14.0% 1.33
SHORT BASKET -41.2% 46.1% 1.12 -0.89 -56.7% 0.73 0.95 1.07 90% -1.0% -0.39 109.6% 109.6% 0.0% 14.5% 0
BENCHMARK -37.6% 41.0% -0.92 -48.0% 0.78
LONG-SHORT 12.6% 17.6% 0.43 0.71 -9.0% 1.4 0.23 0.1 5% 18.7% 1.28

Notes:
1 The benchmark in this analysis is the S&P500 Price Index
2 The Sharpe ratio is calculated with a risk-free rate of zero
3 Drawdowns are calculated on daily closing prices (i.e. not intraday highs and lows).
4 The R-squared indicates how much the variance of a security can be explained by the variance of the benchmark: if a security has a low R-squared value, the CAPM single-factor linear relationship doesn’t explain much of the variance of the security, and the CAPM metrics (beta, alpha, Treynor ratio) are not useful for this particular security.
5 The annualized alpha is a compounded calculation from CAPM estimations on daily returns.
6 The active performance metrics are calculated relative to the volatilty-adjusted benchmark (i.e. the benchmark multiplied by the relative volatility of the allocation to the benchmark).

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